Opposition lawmakers stand out by politicizing the debate on Argentine elections

By: FGV ECMI

• Beyond comparisons with Lula and Bolsonaro, the polarization of the discussion about neighboring elections was also expressed in parliamentary debate, with a high degree of involvement from opposition figures;
• Accusations of fraud involving Brazilian authorities such as Lula, Alexandre de Moraes, and Carmen Lúcia were recurrent, with Carmen Lúcia having 714% more mentions than the minister;
• Sergio Massa had a better reception on X, driven by positive comparisons with Lula, while Javier Milei gained more prominence on Facebook, on pages linked to the far right.

After the first round of Argentine elections, the polarization in the discussion about the neighboring election was evident through the significant involvement of Brazilian opposition lawmakers who politicized the event, along with comparisons between the candidates and Lula and Bolsonaro. This was revealed by a study conducted by FGV School of Communication, Media, and Information (FGV ECMI), which analyzed posts about the suffrage on X and Facebook between October 22nd and November 6th.

While comparisons between Lula and Sergio Massa were marked by the alleged involvement of these politicians in corrupt practices and general criminality, the comparisons between Bolsonaro and Milei focused on dubious connections with organized crime and the deliberate or alleged support for actions by military dictatorships in their respective countries.

 

Debate about the Argentine elections in Brazil

Evolution of mentions of the topic on X

Period: from October 23rd to November 6th, 2023

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• The release of the first-round results on October 23rd triggered the highest peak of mentions on the subject. The surge was mainly driven by various expressions of surprise regarding the leadership of the candidate Sergio Massa, a result that divided political groups. On that day, celebrations from the progressive camp were more prominently highlighted;

• Two specific episodes stood out and generated a higher number of comments. On the 30th, audiovisual records of long lines of cars in Buenos Aires were highlighted in posts by supporters of Milei in Brazil, such as Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro. Then, on November 1st, allegations of supposed ties between Alberto Lynch's family, an ally of Milei, and a drug trafficking group circulated among critics of the politician;

• Throughout the period, the high involvement and participation of politically relevant figures in Brazil stand out. Immediately after the first round, on the 23rd, Senator Humberto Costa, for example, stood out, as did posts in response to Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Of the 28,750 mapped posts throughout the period, about 9,200 reference Lula or Bolsonaro, highlighting how the debate about the Argentine elections is intertwined with the Brazilian context.

Main terms on the topic in X  

Period 1: from October 23rd to 30th, 2023

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• On  X, supporters of Massa and, generally, Lula had a greater presence in both periods of the debate. Comparisons between Milei and former President Jair Bolsonaro were significant in both word clouds and were predominantly critical, with numerous mentions also regarding federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, who actively campaigned for Milei before the first round. In total, there were 14,300 mentions of the former president in X, while his son was mentioned 4,800 times;
• In this context, terms such as 'genocide,' 'theft,' 'economy,' 'fascism,' and 'shame' were used to set negative comparisons between Bolsonaro and Milei, particularly due to an alleged association between Milei and a former Argentine dictatorship general, Antonio Domingo Bussi.
• Post-first round, there was widespread circulation among progressive profiles of news alleging Milei's connection to the Benegas Lynch family, accused of involvement in parallel financial markets and drug trafficking. Additionally, the issue of the conflict between Israel and Palestine was briefly linked to the Argentine elections due to posts denouncing a boycott of left-wing candidacies in the country, such as that of Myriam Bregman.

Evolution of posts and interactions on the topic on Facebook

Period: from October 23rd to November 6th, 2023

Total posts: 1,833 | Total interactions: 318,410

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• On Facebook, there were 1,833 posts about the Argentine elections after the first round's results, accumulating a total of 318,410 interactions. It's interesting to note that four out of the top ten most prominent posts, published by far-right parliamentarians or influencers, focused on the narrative of electoral fraud and the alleged interference of Lula and the Brazilian judiciary in the elections, mentioning figures like Supreme Court Justices Alexandre de Moraes and Cármen Lúcia.
• It's interesting to note that a significant number of Brazilian lawmakers commented on the Argentine election, gaining substantial visibility on Facebook. In this context, those who expressed support for Milei and Bolsonaro had considerably more significant reach, such as Gustavo Gayer, Carla Zambelli, Eduardo Bolsonaro, Carlos Jordy, and Marcel van Hattem. The general tone suggested that Sergio Massa represented the 'power project of destruction of the left and the current government,' as argued by Jordy. With less reach, government figures like Gleisi Hoffmann expressed enthusiasm for the favorable outcome for Massa.
• Having the most prominent post, Federal Deputy Gustavo Gayer shared a video suggesting that the outcome repeated the alleged fraud that happened in Brazil, and that the second round would happen similarly, with an alleged narrow, false result favoring the left. Influencer Deycon Silva, who published the third most prominent post, emphasized that the STF had become the target of an international protest due to alleged accusations of censorship in Brazil.
• Both posts highlighted Sergio Massa's victory in the first-round despite being a former Minister of Economy during high inflation rates as 'evidence' of the alleged fraud ongoing in the Argentine elections.
• An alleged fake news regarding Lula having obtained the majority of votes among prisoners in the 2022 elections was adapted for Massa's case through a post by Senator Magno Malta. According to the site Infobae, which claimed to have relied on data from the National Electoral Chamber, Massa allegedly garnered more than 70% of votes from Argentine prisoners, which was mobilized as 'proof' that the candidate could potentially be involved in criminal activities.

Potentially disinformative axes on the topic

Period: from October 23rd to November 6th, 2023

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• At least 3,212 posts on X made associations between the Brazilian Judiciary and the Argentine elections, mentioning institutions like the Supreme Federal Court (STF) or specific authorities like the ministers of this Court, particularly Cármen Lúcia and Alexandre de Moraes. It's interesting to note that Lúcia had about 714% more mentions than Moraes. Several messages accused the minister of being dispatched by the STF and the Brazilian government to Argentina, allegedly to interfere in the neighboring election.
• Although associations between Lula and Sergio Massa were generally positive, accusations of involvement in corruption and criminal activities were recurrent among critics on the left side. Notably, there was the news, shared by figures like Senator Magno Malta, claiming that Massa received over 70% of the votes cast in prisons. This alleged fact resembles an argument used by Jair Bolsonaro's campaign after the first round involving Lula, suggesting that the former president was the most voted among inmates.
• Comparisons between Bolsonaro and Milei regarding alleged or declared involvement with criminals were also recurrent. Milei was accused of being complicit in the violence committed during the military dictatorship due to his association with former Argentine dictatorship general Antonio Domingo Bussi and involvement with organized crime due to his connection with the Benegas Lynch family. These arguments were linked to Bolsonaro's stated admiration for crimes committed during the dictatorship and the alleged involvement of his family with militias.
• On X, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro accused Lula of making significant political moves to undermine Milei's candidacy. On Facebook, prominent information from various pages claimed that the Argentine press had released evidence supporting this claim. It was also suggested that, conversely, Milei and Jair Bolsonaro were working together to remove Lula from the presidency of Brazil.