Recent debates about abortion, same-sex marriage, and gender-neutral bathrooms suggest a mobilization by the opposition

By: FGV ECMI

• During the month of September, there was a high level of engagement from political and religious actors in opposition to Lula’s administration on these issues, suggesting centrality in the agenda of the conservative wing;
• Posts about the performance of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and its ministers stood out in the debates on abortion and same-sex marriage, with criticisms coming from parliamentarians, such as Deputy Nikolas Ferreira;
• With the exception of the attempt to ban same-sex marriage, which had a majority of progressive comments, the other topics were dominated by conservative approaches.

At the end of September, the opposition to the current administration mobilized significantly on Facebook and Instagram regarding debates on the decriminalization of abortion, the prohibition of same-sex marriage, and the alleged introduction of gender-neutral bathrooms. The three topics had significant peaks, almost simultaneously, during votes in the Chamber of Deputies and the Supreme Federal Court. Political actors and religious leaders stood out among the most influential pages in these debates. This is shown in a study by FGV School of Communication, Media, and Information (FGV ECMI) that analyzed the digital debate on these topics on Facebook and Instagram between July 1 and September 25, 2023.

Debate about the decriminalization of abortion

Evolution of the number of posts on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from July 1st to September 25th

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• The most extensive debate among the three topics analyzed was the decriminalization of abortion. Facebook and Instagram recorded 3,421 and 2,642 posts on the subject, respectively. In both social networks, expressions against abortion prevailed. On Facebook, with a more political nature, posts revolved around former President Jair Bolsonaro – from the politician’s official page to support pages and fellow party members. On Instagram, there was a more religious tone, with posts published mainly by evangelical and Catholic leaders and pages;
• The highest peak in the debate on both platforms was the vote on the issue within the Supreme Federal Court on September 22. The topic was prominently raised by former President Bolsonaro, and federal deputies, such as Eduardo Bolsonaro, Bia Kicis, and Felipe Barros. On Facebook, there were posts that echoed the Pro-Life Demonstration, which took place in front of the Supreme Federal Court on September 14. The presence of parliamentarians at the event, like federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira, was used to legitimize the actions of the demonstrators;
• On Instagram, posts featuring images of fetuses and crying babies, accompanied by anti-abortion texts, circulated prominently on profiles of religious leaders like Pastor André Valadão and Father Paulo Ricardo. Supreme Federal Court Minister Rosa Weber also appeared frequently on the platform, both on media outlet pages – whether from traditional or progressive media – and on religious ones where she was labeled as “anti-life.”

Featured Posts on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from July 1st to September 25t

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

Debate on the ban on same-sex marriage

Evolution of the number of posts on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from July 1st to September 25th

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• The postponement of the vote on the bill aiming to prohibit same-sex marriage marked the highest peak of the debate both on Facebook and Instagram – with 2,827 and 2,129 posts on the respective platforms, respectively. In terms of political alignment, this debate was more balanced compared to the discussion on abortion decriminalization. While on Facebook, there was a more even distribution of posts against and in favor of same-sex marriage, on Instagram, posts in support of it predominated;
• Statements made by federal deputy Nikolas Ferreira against same-sex marriage and with criticism of the approach to these issues in the Supreme Federal Court (STF) had a significant reach in the debate on Facebook. In contrast, the discourse of federal deputy Erika Hilton had broader resonance on both platforms, with posts criticizing the attempt to ban same-sex marriage. It was frequently pointed out that the deputies who proposed the vote had committed a crime of homophobia. The denunciation of an act of transphobia against Hilton in Parliament also had a significant impact.

Featured posts on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from July 1st to September 25t

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

Debate over gender-neutral bathrooms

Evolution of the number of posts on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from July 1st to September 25th

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• The issue of gender-neutral bathrooms had the least impact among the three topics analyzed, with 616 posts on Facebook and 545 on Instagram. Unlike the other topics, there were virtually no mentions of this discussion until September 22, when the opposition began to claim that President Lula’s administration had mandated de creation of “unisex bathrooms” in schools. Although the volume of this debate is smaller than the other topics in this report, it is still quite significant, given that it was concentrated in a few days;
• The discussion may have been intensified by the opposition coordination around the debates on the prohibition of same-sex marriage and the decriminalization of abortion, both of which peaked during the same period. For instance, federal deputy Julia Zanatta posted on Instagram that she was already in front of the STF for a prayer against abortion when she learned of the case, which led her to the add the alleged measure by Lula’s administration to her agenda of protests against the government;
• Among the arguments of the opposition is the alleged collusion between Lula’s administration and the Judiciary, specifically involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The idea persists that the President of the Superior Electoral Court and Supreme Court Justice facilitate Lula’s election in the 2002 presidential election and is now allegedly promoting a political-ideological agenda that supports causes such as drugs, abortion, and “gender-neutral bathrooms”.

Featured posts on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from July 1st to September 25th

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI