Extreme events, political party disputes, and disinformation characterize the debate on climate change on social media

By: FGV ECMI

 

• Episodes related to institutional politics and extreme events, such as the floods in the coastal areas of São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul, triggered the most significant peaks in the debate;
• The parliamentary debate on the topic tended to occur at a political and partisan level, with no records of messages with a programmatic content related to the topic;
• Conspiracy theories and pseudoscience characterize laterally present disinformation threads. Content denies negative effects of human activities on global temperature changes.

 

News and comments about the extreme events of the year, especially those that occurred on the coast of São Paulo and in Rio Grande do Sul, stood out in the public debate on climate change. However, the attribution of responsibilities related to the events and global temperature fluctuations is characterized by political and partisan disputes and the mobilization of disinformation threads. This is shown in a study by FGV School of Communication, Media, and Information (FGV ECMI), which analyzed the digital debate on climate change in X, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Telegram from January 1 to September 19, 2023.

 

Political and partisan conflicts are evident, such as the prominence of accusations by the opposition against Lula, who was criticized for his absence during the recent floods in Rio Grande do Sul. Indicating the articulation between disinformation threads and political partisanship, the current Brazilian president and his allies, as well as environmentalists, are sometimes characterized as "globalists." This is because the analysis of the disinformation threads identified in the mapped debate reveals the presence of conspiracy theories that link various content to pinpoint political and ideological factors as the "true culprits" of phenomena associated with human interference in climate change.

 

 

Debate on climate change

Evolution on the debate about climate change

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• The discussion on climate change was diverse throughout the year, but episodes related to extreme events and institutional politics triggered the highest peaks in the debate. Tragedies associated with storms and floods, such as those that occurred in February on the coast of São Paulo and in early September in Rio Grande do Sul, constituted some of the highest points of discussion - second only to the heatwave at the end of the Brazilian winter and Lula's participation in the UN on September 19, where the president emphasized the urgency of climate action;
• The data suggests that concrete effects on people's daily lives drive a more substantial discussion about the consequences of climate change. Although this association does not necessarily imply widespread awareness of the issue, the most prominent messages directly link the extreme events under discussion to the negative impacts of human activities on the environment. This explanatory approach is generally adopted by profiles engaged in the environmental agenda;
• Demands, criticism, and praise directed at the current government regarding its handling of the climate agenda are prominent, as are institutional statements during international events. Criticisms of the lack of infrastructure and resources to prevent or mitigate the consequences of disasters are also highlighted. In this context, the association between urgent actions on climate change and the possibility of saving lives is frequent, both from profiles engaged in the issue and government authorities.

 

Main terms about climate change in X

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• In the spotlight in the word cloud, the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul prompted different thematic threads: from allegations of disinformation spread by journalists and politicians to weather alerts, updates on the situation in the state, and the disclosure of the federal government actions to mitigate the crisis's effects. Alternative media profiles focused on the discussion of the need for climate change adaptation plans in the states;
• Topics such as carbon emissions, sustainable development, water crisis, and indigenous peoples also emerged prominently in direct association with combating climate change, especially in reference to the humanitarian crisis of the Yanomami, which was widely reported at the beginning of the year, and the protests against the Temporal Framework, in the second half of 2023;
• The fight against disinformation  was also prominent in the debate, especially linked to criticisms of intentional pseudoscience. The hashtag #MentiraTemPreço, for instance, accompanied the release of a study by the InfoAmazonia NGO of the same name, which examined how scientific hypotheses are distorted to promote climate denial;
• Other hashtags related to combating climate change also stood out in the debate, such as #cúpuladaamazônia, #cop30, #emergênciaclimática, #demarcaçãojá, #marcotemporalnão, and #salveamataatlântica, indicating a predominantly engaged approach to the climate agenda on X.

 

Parliamentary debate on climate change on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• The opposition to the government had predominance in the parliamentary debate both on Facebook and Instagram. As presented in previous reports, the most prominent argument corresponds to attempts to associate Lula with a negative environmental and climate agenda based on data indicating increased deforestation of biomes such as the Amazon and the Cerrado;
• There is also an attempt to associate the current president with the so-called globalism, under the idea that Brazil is "selling out" to rich countries based on "false narratives" about climate change. Reinforcing the trend identified in the above analyses, posts accusing Lula of being "inhuman" during the floods in the South had a significant presence in the debate. They claim that Lula was "lenient" and chose to travel abroad to "seek the spotlight" instead of visiting the region.;
• On the other hand, the most prominent posts from the current government-aligned parliamentarians sought to emphasize how the president is concerned about disasters associated with climate change. In this sense, Lula's visit to the coastal region of São Paulo during the floods in February received particular attention;

• Overall, it is observed that the parliamentary debate on climate change takes place much more at the level of political-party dispute than in a proactive and programmatic level regarding the topic in question. This dispute primarily involves assigning responsibilities and meanings to the potential involvement of various actors in each case.

 

Main climate change links on Facebook

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Critiques about Lula's alleged distancing from showing solidarity in response to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, announcements of extreme heatwaves in winter, news regarding record deforestation in the Amazon, and the humanitarian crisis of the Yanomami people were prominent topics in the circulation of links about climate change on Facebook. This collection of links suggests the diversity of perspectives through which the topic gained visibility on the network, whether of a political, news, or scientific nature;
• In this regard, four of the highlighted links directly mentioned the occurrence of extreme events as effects of environmental imbalances caused by human interference, which indicates a significant interest in scientific points of view, such as global warming. Among descriptive news and opinion pieces, this is the case for the links from MSN Brasil, PT Assembleia RS, UOL, and Superinteressante. Other reports, such as those from MetSul and Extra, focus on established phenomena like El Niño or do not indicate potential reasons for extreme temperatures;

• On the other hand, a blog post on A Chave dos Mistérios Ocultos uses the denial of the existence of this phenomenon as a hook to present a pseudoscientific perspective that the Earth is actually moving away from its axis for reasons not necessarily linked to human activities. This perspective is based on the idea that "more and more scientists are skeptical, not necessarily about global warming, but about its origins in human systems.".

 

Main posts about climate change on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• On Facebook and Instagram, entertainment profiles like Choquei and Alfinetei achieved a high reach when addressing climate change based on its practical effects on people's daily lives. Alerts about extreme heat at the end of winter and discussions with a scientific focus on the consequences of global warming gained significant visibility on these platforms, with substantial levels of engagement;

• Another noteworthy aspect on both platforms was the idea that President Lula was making mistakes and behaving in an authoritarian manner regarding the environmental and climate agenda. The argument that Lula and the Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, should be held responsible for the situation of the Yanomami people due to their alleged political support for Venezuela, from where the vulnerable indigenous individuals had reportedly fled, was a recurring theme.

 

Main Climate Change Videos on YouTube

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: YouTube | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Journalistic and informative approaches are predominant among the YouTube videos with the highest number of views. In these contents, environmental risks and disasters are linked to the perspective that human action is causing global warming and triggering a series of changes related to global temperatures;
• The episodes portrayed frame the issue from an urgent perspective. They encompass environmental disasters worldwide, featured in news coverage, or the extinction of species and countries, a theme addressed in documentary videos on diverse channels on the platform, such as the educational channels Lifeder and ABC Terra, as well as the company Petrobras and FMU University Center. The Official Firefighters of Minas Gerais address the topic of climate disasters in an operational manner, applied to the context of their professional duties;
• Among channels related to journalism, materials from Band Jornalismo, DW Brasil, and Folha de São Paulo stand out. Journalist André Trigueiro, associated with sustainability topics, is featured with an opinion-based live stream on the issue, which he presents as "urgent.".

• The Jovem Pan News channel, also part of the national journalism ecosystem, appears in the ranking with a recent documentary that links climate change to environmental disasters in Hawaii. In the comments, the audience questions the documentary and the network's "endorsement" of the climate change "narrative," as it was previously associated with former President Jair Bolsonaro.

 

Disinformation threads about climate 

 

The main disinformation axes identified on WhatsApp and Telegram regarding climate change include political-partisan misinformation, climate change denial, and attacks on alleged globalism. In general, conspiracy theories were used to pseudoscientifically explain recent environmental disasters, with mentions of groups and projects that would aim to use the climate agenda as a political and economic maneuver to manipulate individuals.

 

Disinformative axes about climate change on X

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

 

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Conspiratorial messages that question the veracity of climate change and global warming, as well as the integrity of environmental institutions, were common on X. Postings that directly associate extreme events with alleged deliberate government actions to cause them, such as the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, were also identified;
• Regarding the aforementioned episode, there was significant circulation of criticism against the false claim that the floods in that state were caused by the criminal opening of dam gates allegedly built by the Workers' Party governments, as announced by the presenter Alexandre Garcia.

 

Disinformation threads about climate change on WhatsApp  

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: WhatsApp | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• On WhatsApp, most of the most shared messages about climate are limited to news reports on environmental disasters that occurred in various parts of the country and the world during the analyzed period. Partisan claims regarding the handling of environmental issues in the country were also recorded, with praise and celebrations of the current federal government in progressive groups, and criticisms based on data related to forest fires and deforestation in opposition groups.
• Conversely, the disinformation threads related to the climate debate are primarily based on denying what is identified as the "narrative" of "climate change." As demonstrated by the reproduced messages highlighted above, the denialist content recorded on the platform is characterized by referencing some form of authority that endorses conspiracy theories, presented as alternatives to the scientific consensus surrounding the existence of the phenomenon.

 

Disinformation threads about climate change on Telegram

Period: from January 1st to September 19th

Source: Telegram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• More prominently in the set of messages collected, the main disinformation threads about climate on Telegram are driven by the denialist counterposition to what is termed as a self-interested, ideological, and globalist agenda for discussing the topic from the perspective of global warming and climate emergency;
• In this sense, conspiratorial perspectives are invoked to explain climatic disasters as products of the self-interested actions of an abstract group of promoters of this "global agenda" who act to manipulate the world's climate and create situations that can justify interventions based on climatic "hoaxes."
• The interests at play in this topic involve, for example, the attempt to establish global government control or gain economic benefits through the carbon credit market.
• Different actors, institutions, and types of content make up the disinformation ecosystem on climate within the platform. Testimonials from conservative international leaders, translated into Portuguese, are combined with textual and audiovisual reports in Portuguese. Multichannel distribution within Telegram and cross-platform sharing outside the app is also prevalent.
• With a strong presence of groups and channels associated with the far-right, a name often mentioned in the messages is that of a supposed U.S. project called the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP), which is believed to have the ability to cause climate "disasters" with the aim of manipulating the world through weather manipulation.