The debate on the repatriation of Brazilians is embodied in the figures of Lula and Bolsonaro

By: FGV ECMI

 

• While Bolsonaro stands out on X, Lula takes the lead on Facebook. Both political wings seek to claim credit for the repatriation of Brazilians in Gaza.
• The diplomatic tensions between Brazil and Israel, with emphasis on the relationship between Lula and Ambassador Daniel Zonshine, are a topic intensely explored by the opposition to the current government;
• In the parliamentary debate on Facebook, federal deputies and senators from the opposition recorded 965% more engagement than the government supporters.

 

The discussion about the repatriation of Brazilian citizens from the conflict between Israel and Hamas is highly contested between government and opposition profiles, with a strong personalization of the political negotiations attributed to the figures of President Lula and former President Bolsonaro. This is shown in a study by FGV School of Communication, Media, and Information (FGV ECMI), which analyzed posts about the Middle East conflict on X and Facebook between October 28th and November 15th.

While Bolsonaro gathers a larger volume of associations with the topic on X, Lula stands out more on Facebook. In the parliamentary debate, there is a strong presence of allies of the former president, arguing that he would be directly involved in the process of repatriating Brazilians due to his alleged influence with the Israeli government, which would not happen with Lula.

 

 

Debate geral 

Evolution of mentions of the topic on X

Period: from October 28th to November 15th, 2023

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• With a significant peak on November 10th, the debate about the repatriated Brazilians from the conflict between Israel and Hamas is highly contested between government and opposition profiles, reaching approximately 979.3 thousand mentions throughout the mapped period.

 

• In this scope, some main narratives stand out and exemplify the aforementioned dispute: on one hand, there are numerous praises and thanks directed at Lula for the rescue of Brazilian citizens who were in Gaza. On the other hand, there is a strong movement to attribute the responsibility for the rescue to Bolsonaro, promoting the hashtag #BolsonaroNobelDaPaz. Interestingly, the discussion is strongly personified around these figures, leaving aside a potential focus on the repatriated individuals themselves.

 

 

• In addition, there was significant emphasis on the alleged diplomatic tensions between Brazil and Israel, with particular attention to the relationship between Lula and Ambassador Daniel Zonshine and the recent statements by the president condemning Israel's actions in the conflict. Both episodes are being recurrently used by the opposition to insinuate a supposed alignment of the Brazilian left with Hamas." 

 

Parliamentary debate on the topic on Facebook

Period: from October 28th to November 15th, 2023

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Opposition lawmakers had 965% more engagement than the government supporters. Slightly below the government faction, center figures had significantly limited expression. In opposition posts, former President Jair Bolsonaro was portrayed as a key mediator in terms of negotiations with Israel to repatriate Brazilians. Lawmakers such as Carla Zambelli, Filipe Barros, Bia Kicis, and Carlos Jordy, all from the PL party, took center stage in this regard.

 

 

• Compared to the government supporters, Guilherme Boulos from PSOL, and Gleisi Hoffmann, Lindbergh Farias, and Humberto Costa from PT, had a more prominent performance, generally arguing that Lula was responsible for the negotiations that led to the transfer of Brazilians from Gaza to the country. 

 

 

Debate associated with Lula and Bolsonaro

 

Associations with Lula and Bolsonaro in X

Period: from October 28th to November 15th, 2023

Total posts related to Lula: 354,850

Total posts related to Bolsonaro: 532,750

Source: X | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Given the centrality that Lula and Bolsonaro acquire in this discussion, we seek to detail these associations. From this, it is possible to envision that while Lula, from the federal government, is undertaking various diplomatic efforts, former President Bolsonaro concentrates a greater volume of associations with the subject.

 

• "Regarding Bolsonaro, the focus of the mentions highlights how the support base of the former president acts in an organized manner on social media. This is because the hashtag #BolsonaroNobelDaPaz gains strong prominence in the discussion, disseminating the notion that the politician would be responsible for the rescue of Brazilians in Gaza. Bolsonaro's meeting with the Israeli ambassador to Brazil also gained central attention, being strongly praised by the right-wing. On the side, government politicians mock the characterization that Bolsonaro would be a “hero”.

 

 

• Regarding Lula, there is also a tone of gratitude in the prominent mentions. However, this discussion is more contested as there are various criticisms circulating regarding Lula's statement condemning Israel's actions.

 

Main links associated with Lula and Bolsonaro on Facebook

Period: from October 28th to November 15th, 2023

Total links related to Lula: 604

Total links related to Bolsonaro: 145

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Differently from what was observed on X, on Facebook, there is a greater emphasis on Lula, both in terms of the volume of links associating him with the topic and in the content of these mentions.

 

 

• In this sense, the links that deal with the current president are more positive towards his image and that of the federal government, focusing on diplomatic efforts to rescue and receive the repatriated individuals from Gaza. It's interesting to note that there is no prominence of a specific media actor, instead, there is a balance between more partisan outlets like Jovem Pan News and Brasil 247, and others more traditional like Band.

 

 

• The opposite is observed in the links mentioning Bolsonaro, prevailing a more negative tone, indicating that his 'strategy' to associate himself with repatriation had failed. It is also noticeable that right-leaning media outlets do not stand out in this monitoring.