Debate about the rains in Rio Grande do Sul sparks narrative disputes involving disinformation, hate speech, and solidarity actions.

By: FGV Comunicação Rio 

Between April and June 2024, various themes mobilized the Media and Democracy project. Among them, the multiple nuances of the digital debate surrounding the tragedy caused by the rains in Rio Grande do Sul in May 2024 became a significant focus of the project's studies, fact-checking efforts, and council discussions. The spread of disinformation, disputes over leadership, tensions between public and private spheres, and the debate on environmental racism triggered by the incident were some of the key aspects addressed within the scope of this event.

Other themes investigated by the project during this period included platform regulation, systematic attacks on democratic actors and institutions—particularly the Brazilian judiciary and institutions linked to the electoral process—the debate on topics from the so-called “conservative agenda” such as abortion and drug decriminalization, gender-based violence in the electoral context, and failures in the moderation of advertisements on digital platforms involving disinformation and hate speech.

This policy paper begins with the section “Analysis Lines: The Period's Overview”, which presents the findings from the debates on the rains in Rio Grande do Sul and other key themes addressed by the project on platforms such as X, WhatsApp, and Telegram. These findings, along with the in-depth analysis conducted to produce these studies, paved the way for identifying potential lines of action, outlined in the section “Action Lines: Thematic Guidelines”. Finally, the “Retrospective” section highlights the project's main activities from April to June 2024. 

1. Analysis Lines: The Period's Overview

From April to June 2024, the Media and Democracy project produced 13 social media monitoring reports and seven fact-checking verifications. The period covered various topics central to the project, with a strong focus on discussions arising from the heavy rains that struck Rio Grande do Sul between May and June, forming the core of this policy paper. Other investigated themes included digital platform regulation, artificial intelligence, conservative agendas, and narratives about electoral fraud.

The study on the rains in Rio Grande do Sul analyzed the discussion surrounding the tragedy between May 1 and May 15, 2024, identifying contrasts between civic mobilizations and State actions, reflecting significant politicization of the episode. In terms of visibility, influencers, artists, and celebrities stood out. Notably, disinformation gained prominence, with intense disputes between right- and left-wing groups. On X, mentions of the term "fake news" within the context of the RS debate surpassed mentions of Porto Alegre by 30%, for instance.

Another aspect analyzed concerning the Rio Grande do Sul rains was the debate on environmental racism, which emerged after a digital influencer claimed the tragedy was "divine punishment" due to the presence of many practitioners of Afro-Brazilian religions in the state. A study delved deeper into this issue, examining the reactions of right-wing politicians against initiatives prioritizing aid to the most vulnerable groups during the disaster, such as quilombola, Roma, Indigenous, and Black communities.

The issue of platform regulation was discussed in light of the notable conflict between South African entrepreneur Elon Musk, owner of X, and Brazilian authorities and democratic institutions, which were accused of censorship and authoritarianism. This debate's prominence was concentrated among far-right actors, pointing to the continued strengthening of this political faction on social networks.

Other reports from the period underscore the same trend of far-right prominence on platforms, such as studies that: 1) identify "electoral fraud" as a central theme in discussions about the Judiciary, and 2) analyze key actors in conservative agendas like abortion and drug decriminalization.

Two other reports directly address different aspects of safeguarding democracy in the context of Brazil’s municipal elections scheduled for October 2024. One of these studies examined posts containing gender-based violence, hate speech, and disinformation targeting pre-candidates in São Paulo, highlighting a more toxic online environment for female candidates. The other study assessed the effectiveness of Google Ads in restricting hateful and/or disinformative content on YouTube, uncovering flaws that could negatively impact the elections.

In April, the policy paper "Electoral Integrity in the Digital Environment: Risks and Recommendations for Brazilian Municipal Elections" was also released, produced by Democracy Reporting International (DRI) in collaboration with FGV Comunicação Rio, FGV Direito Rio, and Lupa. Based on discussions with the Media and Democracy council and other stakeholders, the report identified three main risk areas in the digital environment for the 2024 elections: hate speech, disinformation, and political ads. It also provided specific recommendations for electoral authorities, civil society organizations, and digital platforms to strengthen digital democracy and anticipate regulatory and communication challenges during the 2024 online campaigns.

1.1 Debate on the Rains: Key Actors and Arguments

The study on the rains in Rio Grande do Sul mapped the digital debate during the initial phase of the tragedy, from May 1 to 15, 2024. The research identified key actors and themes, focusing on how the debate exposed ruptures between public and private spheres, reflecting an epistemic crisis and questioning the legitimacy of political institutions. Among the main findings of the study is the extensive politicization of the tragedy, with private profiles gaining prominence over government actors, shaping a "digital public sphere" where different groups compete for space and influence.

Interaction graph of the debate on the rains in Rio Grande do Sul on X

The debate on the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul on X was concentrated around six main groups: the right-wing (47% of interactions), the left-wing (25.4% of interactions), donation campaign organizers (9.3% of interactions), entertainment pages (5.8% of interactions), fan club pages (2.1% of interactions), and common profiles (1.3% of interactions). 

Analysis period: May 1–15, 2024.

 

Fonte: X | Elaboração: FGV ECMI

Em todos os clusters, quando mapeados os 50 usuários com maior centralidade, observou-se um predomínio considerável de perfis privados em detrimento de atores e órgãos políticos. Isso ocorre mesmo entre os clusters de direita e esquerda, explicitando que embora estes grupos pautem a crise no RS do ponto de vista político, tratando da atuação do governo federal e da desinformação sobre o tema, são formados, majoritariamente, por perfis de influenciadores, jornalistas e artistas. 

O fato de um ator ser central, vale dizer, evidencia que uma grande quantidade de outros atores se relacionaram com ele no debate online. É significativo, portanto, que os usuários com maior centralidade no debate sobre o RS sejam influenciadores, ao invés de políticos, pois aponta para o caráter público da crise foi suplantado pelo protagonismo do setor privado. Essa dinâmica evidencia uma característica que, mapeada em todo o debate sobre o RS, diz respeito a uma certa contraposição entre mobilizações civis e auxílios governamentais, o povo e o Estado, o privado e o público.

Esse fenômeno fica nítido quando verificado que, entre a direita, apenas 22% dos perfis estão vinculados à arena política, enquanto 66% são figuras públicas ou influenciadores e 12% correspondem a veículos de mídia e páginas ativistas. Entre o campo progressista, há uma tendência similar: cerca de 48% são artistas ou influenciadores, 28% são veículos de mídia e páginas ativistas e 24% correspondem a atores e órgãos políticos. Os outros grupos de destaque reforçam essa tendência de protagonismo do setor privado, uma vez que giram em torno de páginas de entretenimento e perfis comuns. 

Mesmo que os atores centrais não sejam necessariamente figuras políticas, as narrativas em destaque apresentam um caráter politizado e um teor, mesmo que indireto, de confronto entre iniciativas públicas e privadas. No grupo de esquerda, circularam posts que defendem que influenciadores, como Felipe Neto, teriam ajudado mais o RS do que políticos aliados ao ex-presidente Bolsonaro. Por outro lado, no cluster de direita, ganhou capilaridade a narrativa de que o Estado é inapto para resolver algumas crises. No grupo composto por páginas de entretenimento, as ações de ex-BBBs e influenciadores, como Whindersson e Nego Di, são evidenciadas, em tom elogioso.

Dessa maneira, nota-se que o setor privado, representado sobretudo por influenciadores e artistas, não apenas mobilizou de modo mais central o debate sobre o RS, como ocupou o centro das narrativas e discursos em circulação.

Main actors on Facebook and Instagram

The impact of the rains in Rio Grande do Sul on Facebook and Instagram was marked by media coverage at different levels—from traditional to regional media—and by the strong interest in celebrity culture, observed through the prominence of influencer profiles and entertainment channels. The absence of political figures points to a low involvement of profiles from this segment in the broader debate.

Analysis period: May 1 to May 15, 2024

 

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Prepared by: FGV ECMI

Similarly to the dynamics observed on X, the debate on Facebook and Instagram was marked by the prominence of influencers, artists, and entertainment and media pages. Overall, there was little emphasis on government profiles or political representatives, indicating limited agenda-setting by political figures on the topic.

On Facebook, there was a predominance of media pages from different frameworks: from traditional media to hyperpartisan right- and left-wing media, as well as sports and regional outlets focused on cities in the South. On Instagram, the debate was driven by entertainment and gossip pages, as well as media outlets, influencers, and celebrities.

Across both platforms, the debate tended to center around the actions of influencers and celebrities, significantly overshadowing the agenda-setting by political profiles. On Instagram, the focus on influencer actions was notably stronger, while on Facebook, it coexisted more evenly with practical news, such as updates on the risks of the rains and the situation in cities, as well as the dissemination of aid channels.

In this sense, media outlets played a major role in the debate. Pages tied to celebrity culture (Silva & Oliveira, 2016) had special prominence, such as magazines Caras, Contigo, Quem, and the Splash UOL website on Facebook, and entertainment and/or gossip profiles like Gina Indelicada, Alfinetei, and Hugo Gloss on Instagram. Television news program hosts, such as Reinaldo Gottino, also stood out.

Minister Paulo Pimenta, head of the Ministry for the Reconstruction of Rio Grande do Sul, was the only political figure to appear among the prominent profiles: he ranked 27th and 94th in terms of average engagement on Facebook and Instagram, respectively. The Government of Rio Grande do Sul, the state Civil Defense, and some city governments were the only governmental entities to appear among the prominent actors. While the Government of RS page reached the 16th position in average engagement on Instagram, the Civil Defense of Rio Grande do Sul ranked 58th and 19th on Facebook and Instagram, respectively.

On Instagram, the posts with the greatest reach were from influencers and celebrities who rallied in some way to support the victims of the floods. DJ Alok, comedian Whindersson Nunes, model Gisele Bündchen, and BBB 24 winner Davi posted the most impactful content on the platform. The involvement of celebrities in the tragedy received significant attention in the debate not only through the personal profiles of these individuals but also via entertainment and/or gossip pages. Two of the highest-reaching posts, for instance, came from the profiles Gina Indelicada and Alfinetei, which reported surfer Pedro Scooby’s involvement in rescue operations.

On Facebook, the main posts reflected the same trend, with a focus on the actions of player Thiago Maia in rescue efforts and cartoonist Mauricio de Sousa's act of solidarity, symbolically placing the character Cascão among the volunteers of the tragedy. It is noteworthy that, overall, the prominence of these posts significantly diluted the typically polarized nature of national debates, despite the significant presence of hyperpartisan right- and left-wing profiles in the discussion.

2. Action Lines: Thematic Guidelines

Given the research conducted by the Media and Democracy project during the climate tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul and other studies produced by the project since 2023, there is a clear need to promote a broader discussion on combating misinformation in the digital environment and the development of tools that can provide quick and accurate responses to the population, especially in the context of climate tragedies and other emergency situations.

The debate about the prominence of public and private actors highlights a disconnect between the role of the government in assisting victims of climate tragedies and demonstrates how visibility regimes on platforms influence public perception of political and social events. In addition to the public vs. private debate, the studies also highlight the rapid spread of disinformation and the instrumentalization of this debate for political disputes, again underscoring the importance of this issue. The formation of solidarity networks and the debate on environmental racism also fit into this context, signaling the multiple narratives mobilized following the climate tragedy.

In this scenario, the studies conducted within the Media and Democracy project, along with the fact-checking efforts and the discussions promoted by the council, point to the importance of the work of multiple actors in extreme climate events. Among them, the promotion of public policies that strengthen the role of the public sector in the face of climate tragedies, the responsibility of digital platform companies in combating misinformation, and the role of civil society organizations in strengthening communicative practices and developing tools to enhance the digital environment in supporting victims and expanding access to qualified information stand out. Based on the work developed within the project, the following lines of action are proposed:

2.1 Public Policies

2.1.1 Formulate and implement public policies that act as catalysts for access to emergency services and qualified information, investing in the integration of technological solutions, such as chatbots, SMS alerts, and a wide range of innovative digital tools, to optimize accessibility to public services; 

2.1.2 Use the data from the tragedy in Rio Grande do Sul as input for developing proposals to address this communicational scenario in similar episodes, through the creation of working groups and the exploration of other instruments available at different levels of public administration, in partnership with other sectors;

2.1.3 Promote training initiatives for secretariats and other government communication agents to ensure greater visibility in crisis scenarios;

2.1.4 Creation of public policies aimed at improving citizens' strategies to combat disinformation, strengthening informative and educational initiatives on climate change, and promoting the dissemination of accurate information and data;

2.2 Digital platform companies

2.2.1 Optimize the development of robust structures to eradicate disinformative content and detect false or manipulated information, with particular emphasis on emergency contexts, including strategic collaborations with civil society organizations and journalistic entities to ensure the certification of the authenticity of the information shared; 

2.2.2 Formulate and develop technological structures that allow digital platform interfaces to become efficient vehicles for providing information and services that are proven to be authentic, particularly aimed at assisting victims of climate emergencies;

2.2.3 Develop and publicize pre-established crisis protocols, applicable to situations like the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, aiming to increase preparedness and efficient response to public interest communication in these cases.

2.3 Civil society organizations

2.3.1 Formalization of strategic partnerships between civil society organizations, influencers, and high-visibility entertainment pages, aimed at amplifying the dissemination of relevant information and initiatives; 

2.3.3 Develop initiatives for training and awareness for digital influencers from various sectors, working in partnership with these actors to improve the outreach of emergency communication in crisis scenarios;

2.3.3 Promote a synergistic collaboration between social organizations and communication specialists to develop joint strategies that enhance the reach and effectiveness of the communication initiatives of CSOs working in these emergency contexts.

3. Retrospective

Monitoring

Between April and June, 13 weekly reports were produced. Beyond the developments related to the floods in Rio Grande do Sul, which led to specific reports and a series of fact-checking, FGV Comunicação Rio also focused on the regulation of digital platforms, electoral fraud discourses, and the advancement of conservative agendas in the National Congress. All monitoring activities and project updates can be followed on the website.

Regarding the debate on platform regulation, a study developed by FGV Direito Rio on disinformation in elections was highlighted. This study analyzed Google Ads ads on YouTube and found that despite the platform having a Content Policy, many posts with illegal content were approved, demonstrating failures in the moderation system. If these issues are not addressed, they could cause significant problems and legal violations during election campaigns, for example.

Presented at an event in partnership with the TSE, the policy paper "Electoral Integrity in the Digital Environment: Risks and Recommendations for Brazilian Municipal Elections," developed by Democracy Reporting International (DRI), mapped digital risks for the 2024 elections, focusing on hate speech, disinformation, and political ads. Based on these risks, recommendations were made to electoral authorities, civil society entities, and digital platforms to strengthen digital democracy and anticipate regulatory and communication challenges in online campaigns.

Fact-Checking

Based on social media monitoring, Lupa conducted seven fact-checks on disinformative content circulating on platforms. Disinformative posts about the floods in Rio Grande do Sul were highlighted, such as the allegations that the technology company Starlink, owned by entrepreneur Elon Musk, was the only source of internet connection to assist in rescue efforts for the victims.

It is worth noting that, in April, Musk was the subject of all of Lupa's fact-checks within the framework of the Media and Democracy project, due to the conflicts between the South African entrepreneur and Brazilian authorities over platform regulation. On this topic, the following can be highlighted: Musk did not provide the US with evidence of interference by Moraes in the elections; G1 did not report that an influencer was fined for liking Musk's comment against Alexandre de Moraes; and the Lula government did not announce the suspension of contracts with Musk's Starlink.

Media and Democracy Council

The council remains a space to foster debates between civil society organizations, experts, and political authorities. The entities that make up the council contributed to the creation of the risk report, which assessed the integrity of the Brazilian electoral process for the 2024 elections, and also followed the discussion on misinformation during the climate catastrophe in Rio Grande do Sul.

Events

Between April and July, Media and Democracy held three events to discuss key topics related to the project. The International Seminar - Artificial Intelligence, Democracy, and Elections was held in partnership with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) in Brasília to discuss the challenges that artificial intelligence poses to current democracies, with a focus on the participation of ministers Alexandre de Moraes and Cármen Lúcia. The Political Violence of Gender and Race in Brazil - Combat and Challenges event brought together experts, representatives from digital platforms, and political authorities to debate the intersection of gender, race, and political violence. Finally, the webinar Information Integrity in the G20 - Social Media, Human Rights, and Democracy featured a panel of experts to explore the role of digital platform regulation in protecting human rights and strengthening the pillars of democracy in G20 countries.