One year after the presidential elections, the debate on the STF continues to be linked to suspicions of fraud at the polls.

By: FGV ECMI

 

• In X, the publications with the greatest reach criticize and attack both STF ministers and the discussions and decisions attributed to the Court;
• The general argument of opponents is that the judiciary conspired against the re-election of Jair Bolsonaro and promoted fraud at the polls to benefit Lula, with whom it would be aligned;
• Alexandre de Moraes plays a leading role in the debate about the ministers, followed by Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli and Luís Roberto Barroso.

 

The discourse of distrust in relation to the electoral process, associated with the idea that the Judiciary facilitated Lula's election, remains a central theme in the digital debate about the STF and its ministers. This is what a study by FGV Comunicação Rio shows, which analyzed the digital debate about the STF on X (formerly Twitter), Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, between January 1 and October 16, 2023.

While on X the debate tends towards balance, with a slight predominance of critics of the STF, on Instagram, Facebook and YouTube there is a greater prominence of users who view the institution negatively. In this sense, there is a strong mobilization of statements by ministers taken out of their original context and a recurring appeal to the figure of Jair Bolsonaro as an ethical and political counterpoint to the Court.

 

General debate on the Supreme Court

Main terms about the STF in X

Period: from June 7th to October 16th

 

Source: X | Prepared by: FGV ECMI

 

• In all, 3,891,508 mentions of terms related to the Federal Supreme Court were registered on X between June 7 and October 16, 2023. Ministers, political actors, Court decisions and episodes involving its members are among the most recurrent terms. Justices Alexandre de Moraes and Gilmar Mendes are the authorities most mentioned in the debate, as well as the STF's actions in the January 8th and Temporary Framework cases. In general, the publications with the greatest reach criticize and attack both the ministers by name and the discussions and decisions attributed to the Court;
• The predominant narrative in the publications against the STF is that the judiciary as a whole interfered directly in the 2022 presidential elections in favor of Lula. This argument is used to claim that the agendas and decisions of the Court would therefore be aligned with the precepts and interests of the current government. On the other hand, the idea that ministers like Alexandre de Moraes have consistently acted in favor of preserving democracy also carries weight in the debate, especially in posts associated with the January 8 events.

 

Top videos about the STF on YouTube

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

Total videos: 14,088

 

Source: YouTube | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• Discussions and episodes involving the ministers motivated most of the videos. There is a general news tone, but with a noticeable inclination towards a position aligned with the extreme right, as suggested by the presence of hyper-partisan media channels such as Jovem Pan News and Gazeta do Povo. The idea of undue intervention by the STF in society is present in some of the videos, such as the one highlighting the statement by the deputy mayor of Porto Alegre, Ricardo Gomes, about the institution promoting a "dictatorship" in the country;
• Criticism of the position of Justice Rosa Weber, who has come out in favor of decriminalizing abortion in the Supreme Court, was the reason for the video with the most views on the Misericórdia Play religious channel. The significant reach of this video suggests that criticism of the Supreme Court based on religious and moral arguments, with a strong emotional content, has a significant adherence in the debate. The attack on Alexandre de Moraes and his family in Rome was also a recurring theme on the web, as were the developments on January 8th.

Map of links about the STF on Facebook

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

Total links: 188.330

 

 

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• The map of Facebook links points to a predominance of groups questioning the suitability of the Supreme Court and its representatives. The ideological alignment of the groups highlights the highly polarized nature of the debate. Of the eight sets of groups observed, six bring together far-right groups, which concentrate the attacks on the Supreme Court and have the most expressive reach. In these groups, January 8 is often treated as "proof" of the authoritarianism attributed to the Supreme Court and Alexandre de Moraes;
• With a reduced reach compared to the others, only two groups bring together left-wing and/or progressive groups, who tend to classify the Court and its members, along with Lula, as allies of democracy;

Debate on the Supreme Court Justices

Evolution of the debate on STF ministers in X 

Period: from June 7th to October 16th

Total mentions: 8,887,848

 

Source: X | Prepared by: FGV ECMI

• In absolute numbers, Alexandre de Moraes is a strong protagonist in the debate, garnering around 208% more mentions than Gilmar Mendes, the second most mentioned minister; 
• In the mentions of the justices, there is a certain thematic cohesion, with posts that mostly cite the magistrates in reference to the STF, for example, to talk about a decision or vote. In this respect, a critical tone prevails, with the exception of mentions of André Mendonça, Nunes Marques, Luiz Fux and Cármen Lúcia, who are cited in a more balanced way;
• Despite the similar tone, the mentions of each minister were motivated by different episodes. With Moraes, for example, mentions criticizing the minister's stance towards the January 8 detainees, alleging abuse of authority and "tyranny", prevail, as well as posts dealing with the aggression suffered by Moraes and his family at an airport in Rome; 
• As for mentions of Gilmar Mendes, there was a tendency to decontextualize the minister's statements, with emphasis on his criticism of the PRF in September and the STF's influence on Lula's election in October. Alleged undue associations with Lula were central to mentions of Toffoli, generating a spike of more than 1000% after the annulment of evidence against the president. The same is true of Zanin, who has had the merits of his seat on the Court strongly questioned.

Posts about STF ministers on Instagram

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

Total posts: 87,457

 

 Source: Instagram | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• With a peak of 5.5 million interactions on January 9, the posts about the STF ministers on Instagram are closely associated with the anti-democratic acts in Brasilia and their unfolding over the months;
• As observed in the X and the parliamentary debate on Facebook, the right is the protagonist in this discussion, with names like Carla Zambelli (PL) and Nikolas Ferreira (PL) standing out. On the left, Lula is the main actor; 
• The content of the mentions, it has to be said, is mostly negative, with criticism of what is classified as "abuse of authority" on the part of the justices. In the progressive camp, the focus is on specific votes, such as the decriminalization of marijuana possession, as well as mentions of the January 8 prisoners, with praise for the STF's combative stance;
• Among the topics covered, Alexandre de Moraes is by far the most quoted minister, accounting for around 54% of all the posts mapped on Instagram.  

 

Parliamentary Monitor

Average engagement by party in the debate on

STF ministers on Facebook

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

Total posts: 1778 | Total of parliamentarians in the debate: 281

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

• When we look at the debate about the Supreme Court justices on Facebook, focusing on the posts of federal deputies and senators, there is a clear predominance of opposition parliamentarians, who produce content critical of the Supreme Court. In this context, Novo (105 posts) and PL (615 posts) have respectively 505% and 113% more average engagement than PT (489 posts); 
• It's important to note that Novo has only 3 MPs involved in the debate related to the STF, while PL and PT have 58 and 63 MPs, respectively. The figures point to the mobilization of Novo MPs around criticism of the STF. Even with few representatives in the legislature, its MPs account for a significant volume of posts and accumulate more engagement than the parties with the largest benches.

Key parliamentarians in the debate on STF ministers on Facebook

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

Total posts: 1778 | Total of parliamentarians in the debate: 281

 

Source: Facebook| Prepared by: FGV ECMI

• The opposition's dominance in this debate is even more explicit when you look at the most prominent political actors. Gustavo Gayer (PL), for example, has an average engagement 266% higher than Lindbergh Farias (PT), the government MP with the best performance;
• This protagonism is also reflected in the posts with the highest volume of interactions on Facebook. Created by parliamentarians such as Marcel Van Hatten (Novo) and Magno Malta (PL), these posts indicate, for example, that the STF justices are exercising "political activism" in favor of Lula. Alexandre de Moraes and his actions in relation to the January 8 prisoners are central to these posts. 

Main posts by parliamentarians in the debate on STF ministers on Facebook

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

Source: Facebook | Elaboration: FGV ECMI

 

• As indicated above, among the main posts in the parliamentary debate about the STF justices, Alexandre de Moraes occupies a central place. In this context, the magistrate is mentioned in around 41% of all posts about the Justices of the Court. Although mostly negative, since it is dominated by figures from the Bolsonaro right, the debate about Moraes also draws praise from names on the left, such as Gleisi Hoffmann (PT);
• In this respect, there is a pattern: criticism and praise are mostly related to Bolsonarism. In other words, when the justices are attacked, the criticism comes from former allies of Bolsonaro; the praise, on the other hand, reiterates the relevant role of the Court in combating anti-democratic actions by supporters of the former president;
• Corroborating this notion, there was a peak of around 304,400 interactions in the parliamentary debate on the ministers on September 14, motivated by the trial of the first defendants on January 8;
• Among the most prominent posts, in terms of volume of interactions, there is the recurrent use of alarmist rhetoric, with indications that "great discoveries" about the STF ministers are coming to light. Along with this, there is also a strong conspiratorial tone in these posts.

Debate linked to electoral distrust

Evolution of themes associated with the STF in X 

Period: from June 7th to October 16th

Total mentions: 1,843,608

 

Source: X | Prepared by: FGV ECMI

 

 

• The discussion on interventionism dominated the thematic debate on the STF by far, 610% more than the discussion on the security of the electronic ballot box, the second most talked about topic. Signed by journalists and political actors, the publications with the greatest reach express positions favorable to the STF and praise its fight against coup attempts. Despite this, attacks on the institution, especially Moraes, remain numerous. In the progressive field, accusations of alleged coup attempts against the STF by members of parliament still circulated prominently.
• In the debate on ballot box security, attempts are being made to impute the idea that the judiciary collaborated in a supposed fraud in the 2022 presidential elections. This argument is reinforced, for example, in posts that take out of context a video excerpt in which Barroso and Gilmar Mendes are said to have praised the printed ballot method. Speeches by the justices at external events are also decontextualized to endorse the thesis of fraud at the polls;
• Prominent in the debate is the anti-communist, conspiracy-minded discourse which also associates the Supreme Court with alleged collusion with the government to censor and persecute the press and political opponents, with alleged cases of abuse of authority involving members of the Court. In general, the publications explore the supposed institutional contradictions of the Justices, based on clippings of statements and decisions made by the Court.

 

Key terms about ballot box fraud in X 

Period: from June 7th to October 16th

 

Source: X | Prepared by: FGV ECMI

 

• The alleged attempt to hack the ballot boxes by federal deputy Carla Zambelli and the fallout from January 8 are the central episodes in the debate on ballot box fraud. Moraes, the hacker Walter Delgatti and the MP mentioned were the main characters in the discussion. While the discussion involving Moraes is more diverse and balances between criticism and praise, Delgatti and Zambelli are mentioned as a result of allegations of criminal association in relation to the electronic ballot boxes, in posts that are mostly critical of the congresswoman;
• The term "we defeated Bolsonarism" also featured prominently in the debate, following the decontextualization of a statement made by Justice Barroso at an event in the United States. It was argued that the use of this term, together with others - such as "perdido, mané", directed at a Bolsonaro voter - would damage the reputation and partiality of the institution, as well as supposedly proving undue alignment with the president-elect.

Posts about ballot fraud on Facebook and Instagram

Period: from January 1st to October 16th

 

Source: Facebook and Instagram | Prepared by: FGV ECMI

• Attacks on the ideology of STF ministers and complaints about Alexandre de Moraes' alleged illegal intervention in the elections are recurrent in the debate about ballot fraud on Facebook and Instagram;
• On Facebook, Jair Bolsonaro's videos reinforcing these accusations had a high reach, whether defending the printed ballot or claiming that, at the time of the 2018 elections, political actors linked to the current government classified his victory as fraud in the electoral system. In this way, the former president seeks to legitimize his own accusations regarding the 2022 election;
• On Instagram, accusations of supposed favoritism towards Lula by Justices Fachin, Barroso and Moraes were prominent. On the web, the actions of celebrities such as former actress Regina Duarte and right-wing hyper-partisan media outlets reinforced the predominance of a perspective that associates the STF with electoral fraud.