Após queda no volume de postagens, debate político no X retoma ao patamar pré-suspensão

By: FGV Comunicação Rio

• After the return of X, the average daily number of political posts dropped from 616,000 to 482,000 when comparing the month before and the month after the suspension;
•  Despite the initial decrease, political events such as the attack on the STF and the Contragolpe Operation mobilized users and restored the volume to pre-suspension levels;
• During the blockage, there was residual use of the platform, with an average of 140,000 daily posts and 82,000 active users, indicating partial resistance to the ban and a possible migration to other platforms.

This report examines the impact of the temporary suspension of X,  the former Twitter platform, on political debate in Brazil. The study covers the period from January 1 to December 11, 2024, focusing on the months immediately before and after the social network was blocked in the country. The suspension, which occurred between August 30 and October 8, resulted from a standoff between Brazilian authorities and the platform, leading to a migration of users to alternatives such as Bluesky and Threads, as analyzed in previous studies

The survey conducted by FGV Comunicação Rio reveals significant changes immediately after the platform resumed, but also signals a recovery in debate volume due to political events like the attack on the STF, the G20 summit, the Contragolpe Operation, and criticism of President Lula's economic policies, highlighting a possible transformation in the platform's dynamics or in public interest in political discussions after its return.

Public debate on politics on X before and after the suspension 

Evolution of posts about politics before and after X's suspension

Period: January 1 to December 11, 2024 | Total posts: 191.37 million

Source: X | Prepared by: FGV Comunicação Rio

In terms of post volume regarding the institutional political debate on X, there was a considerable discontinuity in the volume of posts on the platform in the month following its suspension, compared to the previous months. While the period from July 30 to August 30 (the date of X's suspension) recorded an average of 616,000 posts per day, with peaks of 1.2 million mentions, the following period saw a significant decrease: between October 8 (the date of X's return) and November 8, the average number of political posts dropped to 482,000 per day, with peaks of no more than 573,000 posts.

However, this value was recovered after a series of political events, such as the attack on the STF, the G20 summit in Brazil, the Contragolpe Operation, and the unfolding of economic issues, which mobilized both supporters of President Lula and the opposition to the federal government.

Looking at the entire year, this drop is more significant. While in the period from October 8 to December 11, the daily average was 593,100, from January 1 to August 30, the daily average remained at 695,800 mentions. However, it is still necessary to observe whether the increase in volume after the suspension will be sustained in the long term.

Regarding the period in which X was suspended in the country, the political debate saw significant drops, but it did not come close to being completely eradicated on the platform. Specifically, between August 31 and September 7, an average of 140,000 posts per day were made. The average number of unique active users was 82,000 profiles per day.

Main posts in the political debate on X

Period: July 30 to November 8, 2024

Source: X | Prepared by: FGV Comunicação Rio

Two themes were central in the political debate on X during the observed period: suggestions and/or assumptions about a possible victory of Jair Bolsonaro in the 2026 presidential elections and various allegations against Minister Alexandre de Moraes. In the first case, associations of Bolsonaro with Donald Trump after the latter's victory in the United States and ironic posts about his ineligibility were highlighted. In the case of Moraes, allegations—whether or not linked to the controversy with Elon Musk—received significant attention, with claims that the judge was acting unconstitutionally and allegedly promoting a "judiciary dictatorship."

Notas:

1.  Liberação do X: confira a cronologia da suspensão da rede social. Disponível em: https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/justica/noticia/2024-10/liberacao-do-x-confira-cronologia-da-suspensao-da-rede-social. Acesso em 03 de dezembro de 2024.